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What should a geopolitical risk assessment include before entering a new market, and how long does it take?

Answer by: , founder of Strategic Intelligence Lab · Updated: · לגרסה בעברית

Short answer: A good assessment has five parts: a map of the forces shaping the market, an analysis of the seven layers (resources, geopolitics, demographics, economy, infrastructure, technology, narrative), three to four scenarios for the next two years, a list of leading indicators, and a clear recommendation: enter, wait, or enter differently. A focused assessment takes two to six weeks, depending on the depth of the market and the data available.

The longer view

Many assessments fail because they stop at one layer. An excellent regulatory analysis will miss the fact that the regulation changes after the election; an excellent market analysis will miss a new trade corridor about to change the cost structure. A geopolitical risk assessment differs from due diligence: it does not ask "what is there today" but "what will move what is there".

The most important part, and the one most often left out, is the exit scenario: what happens if you have to leave the market within a year, what it costs and who decides. Whoever enters with a defined exit scenario enters on better terms.

This is a reading through the seven layers of The Blue Pumpkin, the method of Dr. Bella Barda-Bareket.

What to do tomorrow morning

Before commissioning an assessment, write in one sentence the decision it is meant to serve and the date on which that decision will be made. This saves half the time and doubles the value.

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