Direct answers on the new world order, the global economy, technology and power, and on whom to consult in Israel before a strategic decision. לגרסה בעברית
Normalization with Saudi Arabia would affect Israel mainly through three channels, and they do not move at the same speed. Markets price expectations before anything is signed, while the deeper effects arrive only years later.
A multipolar world is one in which several centers of power set different rules, instead of a single superpower guaranteeing one order. For an investor, the practical meaning is that assumptions that were safe in past decades are no longer self-evident.
The biggest impact of artificial intelligence on the economy is physical, not digital. Every model runs in a data center that needs industrial quantities of electricity, cooling, water, land and a grid connection.
In some domains, yes. The large technology corporations control infrastructure that used to belong to states: communications, cloud, data, satellites, payment systems and artificial intelligence models. A corporation's decision to block a service, move servers or change an algorithm can affect a country more than a decision by a foreign government.
The main risk in the Gulf for an Israeli company is not economic but political: the deal rests on relations between states, and such relations react to events that have nothing to do with the deal itself. The assessment should answer five questions:
De-dollarization is a slow process, not a revolution. The dollar is still the world's main reserve and trade currency. What is changing is that more countries are building alternatives: trade in local currencies, parallel payment systems and gold purchases by central banks. The main driver is the growing use of financial sanctions, which has pushed countries to look for ways around the American system.
The central change is not the disappearance of whole professions but the breakdown of professions into tasks. Some tasks will move to machines, and human value will shift to connecting, interpreting and exercising judgment under uncertainty.
Cities today compete for capital, talent and corporations almost like states. A leading city is not necessarily the largest, but the one that has defined what it is good at and built infrastructure, regulation and institutions around that definition.
The United States is Israel's largest export destination as a single country, so any change in its trade policy is felt here. The impact runs through three channels:
Before entering a new market you need two kinds of advice. The first is practical: local lawyers, tax, and partners on the ground. The second is strategic: checking whether the market will still be attractive in one year and in three.
A board does not need another trends presentation. It needs someone who will challenge management's working assumptions, with no stake in the outcome. A good board advisor brings questions nobody else brought into the room.
A strategy consultant answers the question "what to do" inside the organization: structure, processes, pricing, growth. A strategic intelligence analyst answers the question "what is moving in the world outside the organization", and what that changes in its decisions.
In an environment where war, elections and regional change happen at the same time, a business plan that rests on a single forecast is very fragile. Scenarios make it possible to prepare a response to several situations in advance, and to recognize in time the signs showing which of them is unfolding.