In an environment where war, elections and regional change happen at the same time, a business plan that rests on a single forecast is very fragile. Scenarios make it possible to prepare a response to several situations in advance, and to recognize in time the signs showing which of them is unfolding.
A good scenario process has four components:
- Mapping the forces shaping the future, and separating what is almost certain from what is genuinely open.
- Three or four genuinely different scenarios, not versions of "good, medium, bad".
- Stress-testing the existing plan against each scenario.
- Early signals that will show when a change of direction is needed.
Within Strategic Intelligence Lab, Dr. Bella Barda-Bareket is developing scenarios for the Israeli business system for 2027 to 2029 and offers scenario workshops for management teams. The work uses the Blue Pumpkin method, which translates a signal into a system, a risk, a scenario and a decision.