Short answer: Plan for two disrupted straits at the same time, not one. Since February 2026 the Strait of Hormuz has been under an Iranian regime that allows passage only to approved vessels and attacks the rest, and in June 2026 the Houthis declared a total ban on Israel-linked ships in the Red Sea. The Port of Eilat receives one ship a month, and more than 98% of Israel's trade moves by sea.
The longer view
The numbers first. Cargo traffic through Bab el-Mandeb stands at roughly a third of its pre-October 2023 level (a seven-day average of 1.1 million tons on 27 Sep 2026, versus 3.2 million tons on the same day in 2023). In the Gulf, at least 12 attacks on tankers were recorded between 28 Sep and 5 Oct 2026; Secretary of State Rubio says the strait is "open", while the Revolutionary Guards say it is "closed". The Joint War Committee in London has designated the Red Sea a war zone. The Port of Eilat's revenue has fallen from about 240 million shekels a year to almost zero, and the overland bypass through Aqaba supplies 15% to 20% of normal volume. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd plan to return one service to the Suez Canal from 27 Oct 2026; the market has not yet decided whether this is a pause or an ending.
In the seven-layer reading, this is a friction between the resources and infrastructure layer (slow) and the geopolitical layer (fast): trade routes are the first to absorb every event in the Gulf. For a CEO this means three things: larger safety stock; contracts with a rerouting and price adjustment clause; and overland routes through Jordan built before they are needed, not after.
This is a reading through the seven layers of The Blue Pumpkin, the method of Dr. Bella Barda-Bareket.
What to do tomorrow morning
Ask your freight forwarder and insurer for a single table: cost and transit time for every shipment on three routes (Suez, the Cape of Good Hope, overland via Aqaba), and check which supply contracts lack a rerouting clause.
Sources: The National, 13 Oct 2026 · CFR, 8 Oct 2026 · ynet, 16 Sep 2026 · Red Team Analysis Society, 8 Oct 2026