What should you check before launching a new product?
Three situational awareness checks.

01 / DIAGNOSISWhy most product launches fail

Post-mortems of failed product launches usually line up the same suspects: a product-market fit problem, a pricing problem, a positioning problem, or a distribution channel problem. But look behind the analysis and the picture is remarkably similar:

The launch was well planned, for yesterday's world.

Between the moment of the strategic decision and the moment of launch, typically 9 to 18 months pass. Within that window, layers that were not part of the plan move: regulation, demographic demand, consumer norms, media attitudes, or an alternative technology. The team working on the launch saw the plan, but not the reality around it.

This is not a lack of intelligence. It is a lack of situational awareness. The difference is critical: intelligence is refined through work, situational awareness is updated through scanning.

02 / METHODThree situational awareness checks, across the 7 layers

Before every product launch, three parallel checks are run, each one across every one of the 7 intelligence layers.

1. CHECK 01

   What is the current friction between layers, and which side of it is the product on?

   Every market has active friction between layers moving at different speeds: regulation against innovation, demographics against existing products, narrative against category. A new product must know which side of the friction it is on. A product on the wrong side of a fast-moving friction will fail regardless of its quality.

2. CHECK 02

   Which assumptions in the launch plan depend on a layer considered stable that is actually moving?

   Launch plans rest on silent assumptions: that regulation will not move, that the demographics are known, that the distribution model will not change, that the currency is stable, and that public discourse is supportive. A silent assumption is one nobody checks, and therefore the assumption that will bring the launch down.

3. CHECK 03

   Which early signals already exist on the ground and contradict the plan?

   Early signals sit outside market reports. They are found in ground data, in shifts in discourse, in small moves by secondary competitors, and in regulatory decisions not yet implemented. Each one is a glimpse 6 to 12 months ahead.

03 / ASSUMPTIONSSix stable assumptions that are actually moving in 2026

Below are six assumptions product teams treat as stable that are in fact moving faster than ever. Each is a typical weak point in launch plans.

1. "AI regulation won't affect my category." Laws in several countries are already crossing over from "high-tech" categories into everyday ones.
2. "The partner market won't change in 12 months." Partner ecosystems are being reshaped more frequently than ever.
3. "The current distribution model will hold." Distribution models change on an 18 to 36 month cycle, faster than product teams tend to assume.
4. "Consumers in this age group want what they always wanted." Generational change is accelerating; behaviors shift within 9 to 12 months.
5. "Public discourse about the category is neutral." The narrative layer is the fastest layer, and sometimes the most dangerous.
6. "The big competitor will stay in control." The scale of technological change lets secondary players leap ahead within months.

04 / COUNTERThe counter-scenario: the hardest strategic obligation

A counter-scenario is a coherent description of a world in which the launch becomes a costly mistake. It is not a catastrophe. It is not a litany of disasters. It is a structured explanation of which layer will move, how, and why that will bring the launch down.

A good counter-scenario answers five questions:

1. Which layer is moving?
2. How strongly is it moving?
3. What connects this layer to the launch?
4. Which signals will indicate that the scenario is advancing?
5. What is the organization's defensive response, and what does it cost?

If the team cannot write a counter-scenario that passes these five questions, it has not looked at the system broadly enough. A launch that does not know how it fails is a launch that was never prepared for risk.

05 / ECOSYSTEMEcosystem dependence: the dependence you don't see

A launch rests not only on the product itself, but on an ecosystem of suppliers, platforms, regulators, lead customers, and distribution partners. Each of them is a point of dependence that can bring down the launch without any change to the product.

Four points of dependence to map explicitly before launch:

• Platform dependence. If the product relies on a single platform for distribution (an app store, a social network, a search engine), a change in that platform's rules is an existential risk.
• Key supplier dependence. A supplier that holds an essential component (an AI model, a raw material, a hardware part) can change terms at any moment.
• Regulator dependence. A single regulator, even at the local level, can halt or slow a rollout.
• Lead customer dependence. When a first customer accounts for more than 30% of activity within 12 months, that is a dependence to address before launch, not after.

06 / TIMINGLaunch timing: the most critical parameter

A launch is not only about "what" and "where." Above all, it is about "when." The right product at the wrong time exits the market before the market has had a chance to see it. An ordinary product at the right time can capture a historic opening.

Five timing factors to analyze explicitly:

1. Regulatory window. Does approaching regulation shorten or extend the window of opportunity?
2. Competitive timing. Are competitors using this time to shape the category before you?
3. Narrative timing. Is public discourse about the category trending supportive or hostile?
4. Macro timing. Do the interest rate and inflation environment allow customers to adopt a new product?
5. Internal timing. Is the organization ready to absorb the operational consequences of success, not only of failure?

The timing decision affects the outcome more than decisions about product features.

07 / CHECKLISTProduct launch checklist

1. The current friction between layers in the target market has been identified, and it is confirmed which side the product is on.
2. 5 to 8 seemingly stable assumptions have been written down explicitly, including silent ones.
3. 3 contradicting signals have been identified on the ground, or there is clear documentation that none exist.
4. A counter-scenario that answers the five questions has been written.
5. 4 points of ecosystem dependence have been mapped with a backup plan.
6. 5 timing factors have been examined, and it has been determined whether this is a suitable window.
7. Follow-up reviews are scheduled for 60 days and one week before launch.
8. Measurable stop signals have been defined, along with what the team does if they appear.