Supply chain:
the quiet layer shaking pricing.

SIGNAL · 01The four structural changes in the global supply chain

1. Structural de-globalization. In the wake of US-China friction, regional wars and technological sovereignty, companies are building parallel regional chains instead of a single global one. Unit cost rises, and so does strategic flexibility.
2. Selective re-shoring. Strategic industries (chips, pharma, energy, defense) are coming home faster than 2022 forecasts assumed.
3. Changing shipping routes. Following friction around the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb, alternative routes (including the "new Black Sea" and regional geographies) are becoming the norm.
4. Re-insurance, rethought. Insurers are strategically shifting from historical pricing to dynamic geopolitical pricing. Premiums are rising even in categories not directly linked to the friction.

SIGNAL · 02Friendshoring as a new investment category

Friendshoring, the transfer of production to politically allied countries, has turned in 2026 from a policy idea into a tangible investment category. Countries such as Mexico, Vietnam, Poland, India and Israel are receiving direct investment flows that would previously have been considered unrealistic.

Three adjacent categories commanding a premium:

• Logistics real estate in new regional distribution hubs.
• Light industry in friendshoring countries.
• Logistics service companies that know how to work "regionally."

SIGNAL · 03Categories that didn't expect to be hit directly

Home and auto insurance

Changes in the prices of spare parts, goods and manufacturing are pushing premiums up. The policyholder does not always realize this is the supply chain layer.

Commercial real estate in city centers

Shops that depend on global supply are facing declining profitability. Demand for real estate in certain areas is falling.

Processed food and food retail

Large food companies are absorbing rising raw material costs. A wave of price increases is expected in "everyday" categories.

Energy and heating costs

Logistical shifts in oil and gas affect local energy pricing, even in countries not considered exposed.

SIGNAL · 04Signals worth watching

• Rulings concerning trade canals and straits (Suez, Panama, Bab el-Mandeb).
• New PPP contracts between governments and logistics companies.
• Changes in flight routes and air freight in response to rising costs.
• The opening of new ports in friendshoring countries.
• Rising reinsurance premiums: a sign of dynamic geopolitical pricing.

SIGNAL · 05Strategic actions you can take now

1. Dependency mapping. Identify the suppliers and components with high geographic dependency.
2. A backup plan. Allocate a secondary source in another region, even at a higher cost.
3. A regional value proposition. Upgrade the sales process to target friendshoring countries as destination markets.
4. Flexible contracts. Logistics contracts with "geopolitical force majeure" clauses.

The supply chain is not a cost unit. It is a layer of strategic risk with cross-category implications.