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How should a board of directors discuss geopolitical risk, and how many times a year?

Answer by: , founder of Strategic Intelligence Lab · Updated: · לגרסה בעברית

Short answer: Twice a year as a structured discussion, and every time an irreversible decision is on the table: an acquisition, a market entry, a major investment or a long-term contract. The discussion should deal with exposure and decisions, not with the news. The key question for a director: "Which assumptions in our plan depend on a decision by someone outside Israel, and what will we do if it reverses?"

The longer view

A good board discussion lasts an hour and rests on three short documents: an updated exposure map, the scenarios and what has changed in them since the previous discussion, and the list of signals that have crossed their thresholds. Without them the discussion turns into a conversation about the morning's headlines, the worst possible way to spend an hour of directors' time.

The board's job is not to guess what will happen, but to make sure management has an answer for each scenario and that the big decisions survive most of them. A board that discusses geopolitical risk only after it materializes fulfills its legal role, but not its business role.

This is a reading through the seven layers of The Blue Pumpkin, the method of Dr. Bella Barda-Bareket.

What to do tomorrow morning

Put two fixed discussions on the board calendar, one before budget approval and one at mid-year, and define who prepares the three documents.

A decision like this on the table?

A 60 to 90 minute briefing that ends with a map of forces, early signals and must-answer questions before the decision. In English or Hebrew.

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