Short answer: You do not try to predict the event; you reduce its damage: less dependence on one supplier, one market and one source of financing, and an action plan for the first three weeks of any crisis. Most events labeled "unforeseeable" in hindsight were entirely foreseeable; nobody wanted to pay for the preparation.
The longer view
It helps to distinguish two types. The first is the true black swan: rare and genuinely unpredictable. The second, far more common, is the gray rhino: a large, visible risk that everyone sees and nobody acts on. Most geopolitical surprises of the past decade were gray rhinos. You manage the first through resilience; the second through scenarios.
Resilience is not an abstraction. It means: if the main supply route closes for three months, we have a second supplier we have already worked with once; if one currency collapses, part of our revenue is in another; and if the CEO is stuck abroad, someone is authorized to decide in their place.
This is a reading through the seven layers of The Blue Pumpkin, the method of Dr. Bella Barda-Bareket.
What to do tomorrow morning
Write on a single page what happens in the first three days of a crisis: who decides, who talks to customers, who talks to the bank. That page is worth more than any forecast.