Short answer: You replace them, and the market already has. Turkey declared a full trade halt in May 2024 and extended it in August 2025 to a ban on ships and on use of its airspace; goods imports from Turkey to Israel fell to 924 million dollars in 2025 from about 2 billion dollars in 2024, and exports to Turkey were almost wiped out (10.9 million dollars). The Bank of Israel found the effect on import prices was only 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points, because cement, steel and building materials were sourced in Greece and elsewhere.
The longer view
Before the embargo, Turkey supplied about 6.3% of Israel's goods imports (about 5.3 billion dollars in 2023), including roughly half of imported cement, gypsum and their products and about a fifth of imported iron and steel, plus plastics, vehicles, machinery and electronic equipment. According to a box in the Bank of Israel's 2024 annual report, cement imports from Turkey stopped completely, yet total cement imports rose in the second half of 2024, with no notable rise in the construction inputs index. Some Turkish goods kept flowing through third countries and through the Palestinian Authority, which is part of Israel's customs envelope, until Turkey began demanding proof of destination in late 2024.
In The Blue Pumpkin's seven-layer reading, this is a case where the geopolitical layer (high speed) struck the infrastructure and real estate layer (slow speed), and the economy layer absorbed the blow because the market is open and diversified. The lesson for a manager: the real risk is not shortage but the premium. Indirect routes cost 20% to 30% more, according to the Federation of Chambers of Commerce, and whoever remains dependent on a single Turkish supplier through an intermediary in Greece, Bulgaria or Romania is quietly paying it.
This is a reading through the seven layers of The Blue Pumpkin, the method of Dr. Bella Barda-Bareket.
What to do tomorrow morning
Ask procurement for a list of every item that originates in Turkey, even if the supplier on the invoice sits in a third country, and require for each such item a second supplier from a country not in political dispute with Israel.
Sources: Bank of Israel, 19 Mar 2025 · Turkish Minute, 30 Jan 2026 · Al Jazeera, 29 Aug 2025 · Calcalist, 10 Jul 2024